International oil prices have rebounded toward $80 per barrel after renewed U.S.-Iran tensions revived concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, reversing part of the decline that followed last month’s interim agreement between Washington and Tehran.
Brent crude rose sharply after fresh attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and renewed U.S. military action against Iranian targets. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate also climbed, trading in the mid-$70s as traders reassessed the risk to Middle Eastern oil and gas flows.
The renewed volatility follows months of disruption in one of the world’s most important energy corridors. Earlier this year, Brent crude surged above $126 per barrel after the U.S.-Iran conflict contributed to a severe reduction in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Persian Gulf energy exports.
Market conditions appeared to improve after the United States and Iran reached an initial memorandum of understanding in mid-June. The agreement opened a 60-day negotiating period and called for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened to commercial shipping, with traffic expected to return to full capacity within 30 days.
That optimism has faded. Recent attacks on tankers, the U.S. decision to reinstate restrictions on Iranian oil sales, and renewed military exchanges have restored a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices. Shipping operators are again exercising caution, with several oil and gas tankers reportedly turning back from the strait after the latest incidents.
Even so, several major banks continue to argue that prices could come under pressure if tensions ease and Gulf exports normalize. Goldman Sachs has forecast Brent at about $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and has warned that the market could move into surplus as supply recovers. Morgan Stanley has lowered its Brent forecasts to $75 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, with prices easing toward $70 in the second half of 2027. Citi has taken a more bearish view, projecting that Brent could fall into the $60–$65 range under a more stable supply scenario.
The competing forces leave the oil market highly sensitive to developments around Hormuz. A durable reopening of the strait would increase the likelihood of surplus supply and lower prices, while further attacks on commercial shipping could quickly push crude higher again.
For now, the market remains caught between the prospect of recovering global supply and the continuing risk that U.S.-Iran tensions could disrupt one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
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