Earlier in the week, a major shift in Eastern European defense policy emerged as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia announced their intent to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, an international treaty banning the use, production, and stockpiling of antipersonnel landmines. This decision, driven by escalating security concerns along NATO’s eastern flank, reflects growing unease about Russia’s military posture and its implications for the region. As these nations—each sharing borders with either Russia or its ally Belarus—move closer to abandoning the 1997 agreement, the ripple effects could reshape both regional security dynamics and global disarmament efforts.
The Ottawa Convention, ratified by over 160 countries, was a cornerstone of post-Cold War disarmament, earning its advocates the Nobel Peace Prize in 1997. It aimed to eliminate antipersonnel mines, which have historically caused devastating civilian casualties long after conflicts end. However, for Poland and the Baltic states, the treaty’s restrictions are increasingly seen as a liability in the face of an evolving security landscape. The defense ministers of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia issued a joint statement recommending withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention, citing a “fundamentally deteriorated” security situation due to increased military threats from Russia and Belarus. The statement emphasized that Russia’s extensive use of mines in Ukraine has led them to reconsider their defense strategies.
Poland, a NATO member since 1999, and the Baltic states, which joined in 2004, have long viewed their proximity to Russia as a strategic vulnerability. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 intensified these fears, prompting a reassessment of military preparedness. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has been vocal about bolstering national defenses, signaled this shift earlier in March, suggesting withdrawal from the treaty to prioritize “current security needs.” The Baltic states, with their smaller populations and militaries, share this urgency, fearing that a post-Ukraine Russia could turn its attention westward.
Finland has been considering withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty, with discussions ongoing in its parliament. While Helsinki did not join the joint statement, Finnish officials have acknowledged that Russia’s use of mines in Ukraine has sparked domestic debates about the treaty’s relevance to their defense needs. The joint statement from Poland and the Baltics emphasized that withdrawal would enable them to “use every necessary measure” to protect their territories, hinting at plans to stockpile or deploy mines along their borders—a move that could fortify initiatives like Poland’s “Eastern Shield” project, which includes minefields and anti-tank obstacles.
Critics, including humanitarian groups, have strongly condemned the potential withdrawal, arguing that antipersonnel mines pose severe risks to civilians long after conflicts end. Groups such as the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) have warned that reversing commitments to the treaty could undermine decades of global demining efforts. Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, for instance, clarified that there are “no current plans” to use mines, suggesting the withdrawal is more about retaining strategic flexibility than immediate deployment.
The implications extend beyond Eastern Europe. Russia, which never signed the Ottawa Convention, may view this as a provocation, further straining already tense relations. Meanwhile, other NATO members could face pressure to reconsider their own commitments, especially as Finland’s potential exit looms. The Ottawa Convention has faced challenges due to major powers like the United States, Russia, and China never signing it. If additional NATO members reconsider their commitments, it could raise questions about the treaty’s long-term viability and impact on global disarmament efforts.
For Poland and the Baltic states, this is a strategic shift—prioritizing national defense over disarmament commitments. As they move closer to formal withdrawal, the decision underscores how modern security concerns are reshaping long-standing treaties. Whether this strengthens their security or fuels regional tensions remains to be seen, but the message is clear: in an era of evolving threats, past agreements are being reexamined in favor of strategic adaptability.
Poland = Orange
Lithuania = Blue
Latvia = Green
Estonia = Brown
Finland = Light Yellow
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